Tropics eerily quiet in what’s usually a busy stretch in September


 Up to date 9:40 a.m. EDT 

After producing back-to-back hurricanes – Danielle and Earl – Mom Nature is catching her breath. The tropical Atlantic is generally a ghost city with a lot of dry air and bands of hostile higher winds. There are a few disorganized disturbances on the fringe of the map, so we do have one thing to look at.

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Tropical Disturbance #1 is a disorganized cluster of clouds and showers transferring within the path of the Caribbean islands. It’s caught beneath a blocking high-pressure system, so it is extra more likely to proceed to the west than the methods up to now this 12 months which have turned north.

The disturbance ought to arrive on the Caribbean islands late within the week. The consensus of the pc forecast fashions is that it’ll come by means of the islands as a moisture surge. Subsequent week, nevertheless, there is a slight likelihood will probably be a system to look at within the western Caribbean.

It’s miles too early to forecast something particular. The Nationwide Hurricane Heart is just not mentioning the disturbance at this level as a result of their map solely covers methods with an opportunity to develop within the subsequent 5 days. This one is of a bit of additional discover as a result of it seems the high-pressure system to the north will drive it west into the Caribbean, which has been rare currently. We’ll see what occurs subsequent week. 

Tropical Disturbance #2 is a sturdy space of disturbed climate that may transfer off Africa later as we speak or tomorrow. As soon as it’s over the Atlantic, it has a slight likelihood to prepare into a minimum of a tropical melancholy. The present consensus of the pc forecast fashions is that this method will not quantity to a lot and can flip north into the central Atlantic. However in fact, we’ll watch to make certain. 

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The long-range laptop forecast fashions do not present any obvious threats growing into subsequent week. The Atlantic continues to be hostile to methods growing. The moisture is congregated within the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico. These areas are more likely to be our focus within the weeks to come back.

 FOX Climate Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has a podcast, Monitoring the Tropics with Bryan Norcross, out there now on FOX Information Audio. You will get it in your machine by clicking right here.



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